LAS VEGAS (October 19, 2010) - The PBR World Finals is only one day away, and each year at this time, I step back from processing the stats for this season and take a look at the big picture.
Each year, we record the ride scores, bull scores and outcomes from somewhere around 30,000 rides in the U.S. and Canada, from the both the PBR and professional rodeo. My season won’t be over until December, because at this time of the year, there are still around 5,000 rides to be processed, including the rides that will happen at the World Finals starting tomorrow.
Riders:
While processing the stats throughout the year, I tend to focus on the bulls, because there are far more bulls than riders, and they are much harder to keep track of. I do notice certain riders I see a lot, and 2010 was the year of Douglas Duncan. In the past 12 months, he’s been on 152 bulls (that we have processed so far…). Compare that to Kody Lostroh, who has been on only 55 bulls in the same time period. Just behind Duncan is Dustin Elliott, who has climbed aboard at least 150 bulls since the day before the 2009 World Finals.
Elliott is holding down the 40th spot in the qualifier standings here, with just over $50,000 won, but he is also in line to qualify for the National Finals Rodeo. Qualifying for both the PBR World Finals and the NFR used to be a fairly common occurrence, but it has become increasingly difficult over the years, and has not been accomplished since the 2004 season when Paulo Crimber and Cory Melton both did it. Crimber placed fourth in the average at the PBR World Finals, and went on to win the NFR in December. In the 2003 season, Greg Potter did exactly the same thing.
One of the things that I find difficult to wrap my mind around is the money won by riders today. Back in 1993, the year before the PBR was born, Ty Murray was the World Champion Bull Rider with $128,659 in winnings that season. Aaron Semas, one of the founders of the PBR, finished the year in 15th place with $48,733. Murray won $42, 607 (34 percent) of his season earnings at the NFR by placing second in the average, which means that Murray entered the NFR with $82,052 in winnings. Fast forward to today, and Murray’s 1993 pre-finals earnings would put him in 28th place on the qualifier list for this year’s PBR World Finals. There are an even dozen PBR riders who have already surpassed Murray’s take for all of 1993. There are five PBR riders who have already pocketed twice that much, and all this prior to the richest event of this season. That is truly amazing.
The two most efficient riders over the past 12 months are a bit of a surprise: Kody Lostroh and Silvano Alves. They have been on fewer bulls than the rest of the World Finals roster, but have made the most of the ones they have been on. Lostroh enters the finals in 25th place in points and 19th place in qualifier money on 55 bulls. Alves is in 12th in points and 6th in money on 78 bulls. Of the Top 4 riders, J.B. Mauney has been the most efficient at fourth overall, Valdiron de Oliveira at fifth overall, Austin Meier at seventh overall, and Renato Nunes at ninth overall. Rider efficiency counts during the World Finals when you need to make the most of the bulls you get.
When it comes to rider statistics, year after year the most consistent and lopsided stat is how left-handed they are. Of the Top 40 qualifiers in 2010, 21 are left handed and 19 are right-handed. About one in 7.68 males in the general population are left-handed. That’s about 13 percent of the population. When you look at bull riders at the professional level, 44 percent of them ride left-handed. And here at the World Finals, the Top 40 are 53 percent left-handed. It appears that left-handedness is as good for bull riders as batting left-handed is for major league baseball hitters. In the past four years, 55 percent of the yearly Top 10 on-base percentage leaders in Major League Baseball bat lefty. In baseball, this is explainable, because there are more right-handed pitchers, and left-handed batters can pick up the ball quicker from a right-handed pitcher, and they are one step closer to first base to start with. In bull riding, the most common theory is that there are more bulls that spin left than right. This has not been documented, but it is the most likely reason for the lopsided number of successful left-handed riders compared to the general population. Bulls that spin in the direction of the rider’s hand are easier to ride.
Bulls:
The one overriding statistical trend when it comes to bulls is that their numbers are ever-increasing. Every year since 2003, there have been more bulls than the previous year. The rate of growth has slowed somewhat over the past two seasons, but in 2010 we are looking at a projected increase of around 133 bulls over the 5,757 that made at least one appearance in 2009. Bulls featured at the PBR Finals are typically among the top 3 percent of bulls that appear anywhere at the professional level in a season. Twenty years ago, the top 3 percent were every bit as good as they are now, but there were very few of them. It was hard to get 100 of them together at one event. Now, there are sufficient numbers of bucking bulls that some of the top 3 percent get left home.
Of all the bulls that appear in a year, some are better than others, and this also applies to the PBR Finals. Traditionally, Round 2 at the PBR World Finals features the best bulls that will appear here. These are the cream of the crop, and are expected to be the best performing bulls at the event. Seven of the eight bulls that are in the World Champion Bull race will appear in Round 2. Bushwacker is the lone exception. He will appear in Round 1, because he is also competing for ABBI Classic Champion – the best 3- and 4-year-old bulls this season. Among the Round 2 bulls, you will find three bulls that are genetic clones of the 1997 PBR World Champion Bull Panhandle Slim: 115 Mr. Slim, 615 Slim’s Ghost, and 215 I’m Back. They are eerily similar to the original Slim.
The World Champion Bull will be determined by their aggregate score at the world Finals. The most relevant statistic to this kind of competition is their average marking relative to the other bulls throughout the year. Here are the contenders with their average marking and ranking over the past 12 months.
Voodoo Child (45.739)
Uncle Buck (45.321)
Bones (45.313)
Bushwacker (45.274)
Big Tex (45.08)
Major Payne (45.073)
Chicken on a Chain (44.913)
Highway 12 (44.643)
Over the past 6 months, the list looks a little different:
Bones (45.875)
Bushwacker (45.538)
Uncle Buck (45.500 )
Major Payne (45.462)
Voodoo Child (45.156)
Big Tex (44.958)
Chicken on a Chain (44.781)
Highway 12 (44.643)
We expect one of these to be the highest marked bull of the World Finals, but there is reason to believe it might not happen. Boyd, Floyd & Ravenscroft’s Black Pearl is the highest marked bull of this season that is not in the World Champion competition, and he could conceivably steal the show.
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