UNCASVILLE, Conn. (October 2, 2010) -Round 2
Colby Yates on 260 Booger Butt:
Not only is Booger Butt a good draw for left-handed riders, he has also delivered Yates to the pay window twice this year. Yates didn’t ride his bull last night, but he has an outside shot at sneaking in to the short go on one head. When they ride a lot of bulls in the opening round, as they did last night, then the odds of making it in on one decrease dramatically.
Jason O’Hearn on 310 Coffee Bean:
O’Hearn did get a score last night, and he is going to get another one tonight. Coffee Bean hasn’t been seen on tour since Billings, but this is a bull who debuted in New York and has been ridden successfully nine times out of 11 attempts this year.
Robson Palermo on 1513 Skyhawk Cut-A-Rug:
Palermo will have a tough time putting up a second score here. Cut-A-Rug is one of the more difficult bulls in the PBR. Palermo has faced him twice, and came down both times.
Silvano Alves on H1 Pushing Cotton:
Pushing Cotton has been ridden twice in five outs this year, and he’s run into trouble here. Since Alves has been in the United States, he’s been on 72 bulls, and successfully ridden 51 of them.
Ned Cross on 100 Soulja Boy:
This should be the go-round win. Soulja Boy got the best of Cross at a Touring Pro Division event this summer, but I bet it won’t happen twice. This is one of the best long-round bulls there is. He’s also one of the best short-round bulls to draw.
When Cody Lambert is setting up an event and deciding what bulls will appear in what rounds, this kind of bull presents a problem. He’s not that difficult to ride, so if you put him in the short round, he doesn’t really fit, because he’s much easier than bulls like Major Payne and Voodoo Child. When you put him in a long round, he’s still the pick of the litter because he is worth more points than many long-round bulls can ever earn. In potential score, this is a short-round bull. In degree of difficulty, he is easier to ride than many long-round bulls. There are always a handful of bulls around that are like this. For a time at the end of his career, Mudslinger was like this. There are bulls around that are essentially the opposite of this as well, with an extremely high degree of difficulty but less potential for high scores. This is what makes Cody Lambert’s job interesting.
Mike Lee on 522 Legacy:
Look for Lee to earn some points here, although it may not be enough for him to make it back to the short round. Like 310 Coffee Bean, 522 Legacy has been traveling with the Jeff Robinson Road Show – West Coast Division. Jeff Robinson is now a nationwide sensation, and he’s had a crew of bulls working out West most of this year. This particular bull started out on Bryan Smith’s Cross Lazy S Ranch in Kansas, has been seen on both coasts this season, and like his traveling buddy Coffee Bean, he hasn’t really thrown anyone off in a while. He’s been ridden 11 out of 13 times this season.
Renato Nunes on 603 Ready Freddie:
Nunes drew well again today. This is another Jeff Robinson bull, and this one is making his first appearance east of the Mississippi River. If he can get Nunes on the ground, it will be the first time he’s thrown off a left-handed rider, and the first time he’s thrown off an elite-level rider as well. Skeeter Kingsolver rode this bull in Springfield, Mo., for 86.75 points.
Wiley Petersen on 132 Skyhawk Rug Man:
Petersen got a score last night, and should get another one here. Rug Man has been ridden in five of his last 10 outs, and the only elite-level rider he’s thrown off is Ryan McConnel in Ontario, Calif.
Ryan McConnel on 615 Jacked Up:
This is a little different type of bull. I haven’t seen him, but his numbers indicate that he is ridden equally often by left-handed and right-handed riders. Most bulls are weaker against one riding hand versus the other. This bull’s only weakness is against the best riders, where he is ridden exactly twice as often. McConnel is one of the best riders.
I often mention the “best” riders or “elite” riders, and what I mean by that are not just the guys who appear on the Built Ford Tough Series. In evaluating bulls, and bull and rider matchups, it’s fairly easy to determine how many points a ride might be worth, but it is much harder to determine whether a particular rider might be able to make the whistle on a particular bull. Many bulls at this level have impressive buckoff percentages, but it’s also necessary to evaluate how often they are able to buck off the best riders. In order to do that statistically, it’s necessary to evaluate the riders and determine which ones are the “best.” For this purpose, I use a composite score derived from a variety of measurables to compare riders one to another over time, including:
Their career riding percentage
Their career riding percentage vs. the Top 500 PBR bulls in history
The percentage of the time they are 85 points or more and 90 points or more
The percentage of go-round wins vs. attempts (how often they are able to win a go round)
PBR Finals qualifications and NFR qualifications.
For my purposes, riders need to have a career rating of over .225 to be considered among the best riders for whom it is possible to obtain career stats (going back roughly 10 years). To give you some idea of how specific men rank, there are 94 riders right now that score .225 or better for their careers. At the top we have:
Justin McBride: .396
Guilherme Marchi: .396
Silvano Alves: .395
J.B. Mauney: .391
Ty Murray: .360
…all the way down to the bottom, where we find:
Pistol Robinson: .230
Jason Bennett: .230
Kasey Hayes: .229
Billy Robinson: .227
So in short, when I mention the “elite” riders here, I am talking about the roughly the top 100 with the most impressive career stats in the past 10 years or so, in the PBR and elsewhere.
Kasey Hayes on 6 Backyard Big Rig:
Hayes hasn’t been riding very well, but this is an awesome little bull – always one of the best draws around. Hayes is 1-for-2 on him, with both meetings in the 2009 season.
Valdiron de Oliveira on 588 The Dud:
The Dud is not really a Dud. He has been a better draw for left-handed riders. Oliveira had him in Tulsa, Okla., in 2009 and bucked off.
Final Five Showdown Bonus Round
Austin Meier on Mac-Nett’s El Presidente:
Meier came down from this bull in Round 2 at Charlottesville, Va., last week, but he did ride him 6.7 seconds. This is not the best draw in the bonus round: El Presidente has a buckoff average of 80 percent overall, and 68 percent against the best riders. In his past three outs, he’s tossed Meier, Lee, and Nunes.
J.B. Mauney on 01 Big Stuff:
This bull may be a little more favorable for Mauney than Meier’s bull is for him, but not by much. Big Stuff has been ridden more often by right-handed riders, and he’s not ridden all that often by anyone.
Renato Nunes on K88 Bando’s Wild & Reckless:
This would be the best draw in this round for a right-handed rider, but he has been pretty effective against lefties. McConnel and Meier are the only lefties to get a score on him.
Valdiron de Oliveira on H50 Hank:
Hank was having an outstanding year up until Memphis, Tenn., when he was less than impressive with Silvano Alves. One week prior to that, he had one of the best long-round trips of the year with Paulo Lima. If he has a good day here, Oliveira has a chance to win this round, but Hank will not be easy to ride.
McKennon Wimberly on 507 Chicken Fried:
In his last two outs, this bull has tossed Mauney and Alves, and those two didn’t ride him 8 seconds combined. This is the bull who smacked Mauney around in Charlottesville. He didn’t look very fun to ride.
Mike Lee on 323 Little Mr. T:
One of the toughest bulls in the PBR, Little Mr. T is a heavy favorite against any rider on tour except Cody Campbell, who has ridden him four out of six times. This bull has been around a long time, and he has only been ridden twice by a left-handed rider – Beau Hill and Adriano Moraes both snuck by him.
Robson Palermo on 265 Myspace:
This is an excellent draw – especially among these 10 bulls. This is the best draw for a lefty in the bonus round, and Palermo is a lefty. He’s not bad for right-handed guys either: Sean Willingham was 90 and 91 points on Myspace at two August Touring Pro events. This should be the go-round win right here.
Ryan McConnel on 206 Flying J Saddles:
This bull has only appeared on tour five times, but was ridden by Hill in Greenville, S.C., for 86.5 points.
Skeeter Kingsolver on -0 Bootlegger:
This is the bull Meier had in last week’s bonus round. He has been ridden some, and appears to be better for left-handed riders, but he hasn’t been ridden by anyone in his past 11 outs.
Shane Proctor on 016B Alpha Male:
Alpha Male is a good draw for Proctor. He hasn’t been around long, but he’s been ridden three out of five times, and two out of three right-handed riders have been successful on him.
